:Product: 0209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
09/0101Z from Region 3977 (N18W96). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (10 Feb,
11 Feb) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (12 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 09/2053Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 09/1138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 09/1308Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 336 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Feb), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (12 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (10 Feb, 11 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
Class M    55/55/40
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Feb 163
Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 165/170/175
90 Day Mean        09 Feb 191

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  020/025-015/018-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb-12 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/60/55
