:Product: 0210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/0046Z from Region 3981 (N07W84). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (11 Feb) and
expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and
three (12 Feb, 13 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 649 km/s at 10/0417Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 09/2237Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 09/2354Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 658 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Feb), quiet to active
levels on day two (12 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (13 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (11 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    55/40/30
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 159
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 160/160/155
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 191

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  014/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  015/018-012/015-017/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/55/60
