:Product: 0211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0535Z from Region 3981 (N07W99). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb,
14 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 628 km/s at 11/0202Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/0153Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/0049Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2077 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (12 Feb, 14 Feb)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
Class M    40/30/30
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Feb 153
Predicted   12 Feb-14 Feb 150/150/145
90 Day Mean        11 Feb 191

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb  017/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb  012/015-017/020-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb-14 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/60/55
