:Product: 0212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 43 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
12/1247Z from Region 3992 (S06W11). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Feb, 14 Feb,
15 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 12/0038Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 12/0410Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 12/0602Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2050 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (14 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (15 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Feb 166
Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb 165/165/165
90 Day Mean        12 Feb 191

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb  016/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  017/020-012/015-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb-15 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/20
Minor Storm           25/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/55/30
