:Product: 0213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 44 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/1109Z from Region 3992 (S06W26). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Feb, 15 Feb,
16 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 654 km/s at 13/0008Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 13/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 13/1120Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2426 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Feb 173
Predicted   14 Feb-16 Feb 170/168/168
90 Day Mean        13 Feb 191

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Feb  012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Feb  017/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb  019/022-011/014-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Feb-16 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor Storm           25/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/50/30
