:Product: 0215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/1936Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 700 km/s at 15/1744Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 14/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 15/0212Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4740 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (17 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (18 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Feb 184
Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 190/190/185
90 Day Mean        15 Feb 192

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  020/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb  020/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  017/022-010/012-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/20/30
Minor Storm           25/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    65/30/40
