:Product: 0216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
16/1838Z from Region 3998 (S14E66). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 681 km/s at 15/2231Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 16/0635Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 16/0536Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3933 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
Class M    45/45/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Feb 185
Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb 185/185/180
90 Day Mean        16 Feb 192

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  020/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  011/012-014/016-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb-19 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/40/25
