:Product: 0217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
17/0446Z from Region 3992 (S06W81). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Feb, 19 Feb, 20 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 17/0552Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 17/1634Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/1755Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4784 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (20 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Feb 185
Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb 185/180/180
90 Day Mean        17 Feb 193

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  014/016-009/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb-20 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/25
