:Product: 0218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
18/0108Z from Region 3990 (S09W37). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Feb, 20 Feb, 21 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 18/0625Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 18/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
18/2051Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1394 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Feb) and quiet levels
on days two and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Feb 178
Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb 180/180/185
90 Day Mean        18 Feb 193

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  009/008-007/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb-21 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/25/10
