:Product: 0222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
22/0306Z from Region 4001 (N24W76). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 22/0136Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/1608Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/2000Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 382 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (23 Feb, 25 Feb) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (24 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Feb 199
Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb 195/190/190
90 Day Mean        22 Feb 193

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  006/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  005/005-006/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb-25 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/25/25
