:Product: 0223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 54 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
23/1927Z from Region 4001 (N24W90). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 23/0701Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/0037Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 232 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (24 Feb,
25 Feb, 26 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb, 26 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M    65/60/60
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Feb 210
Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb 210/210/210
90 Day Mean        23 Feb 193

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  006/008-008/008-008/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/20
