:Product: 0224RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
24/0702Z from Region 4000 (N17W34). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26
Feb, 27 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 24/1939Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 24/2006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
24/1737Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 254 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (25 Feb, 26
Feb, 27 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Feb 203
Predicted   25 Feb-27 Feb 205/205/200
90 Day Mean        24 Feb 193

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb  008/008-008/006-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/20
Minor Storm           10/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/20/30
