:Product: 0226RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 57 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
26/1242Z from Region 4007 (S12E20). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Feb, 28
Feb, 01 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 26/2037Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 26/1231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 26/0505Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 25/2155Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (27 Feb, 01 Mar)
and unsettled to active levels on day two (28 Feb). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 Feb) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Feb 180
Predicted   27 Feb-01 Mar 180/180/175
90 Day Mean        26 Feb 192

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb  011/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-01 Mar  008/010-017/018-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb-01 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor Storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/50/40
