:Product: 0227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
27/1236Z from Region 3998 (S14W84). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (28 Feb,
01 Mar) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (02 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 676 km/s at 27/0418Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 26/2123Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 26/2201Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to active
levels on day two (01 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(02 Mar). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (28 Feb, 01 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
Class M    55/55/25
Class X    10/10/05
Proton     10/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Feb 170
Predicted   28 Feb-02 Mar 170/160/155
90 Day Mean        27 Feb 191

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb  013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb  024/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar  017/018-011/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/40/30
