:Product: 0228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
27/2324Z from Region 3998 (S14W84). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar,
03 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 847 km/s at 28/1828Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 28/0344Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 27/2311Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 489 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Mar, 03 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Feb 155
Predicted   01 Mar-03 Mar 155/155/155
90 Day Mean        28 Feb 191

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb  024/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb  021/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar  014/015-007/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/20/15
Minor Storm           25/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/30/25
