:Product: 0303RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 62 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
03/1647Z from Region 4012 (S13E47). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar,
06 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 535 km/s at 03/0909Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
03/1146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
03/0311Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1133 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (04 Mar, 05
Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (06 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Mar 145
Predicted   04 Mar-06 Mar 140/140/150
90 Day Mean        03 Mar 189

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Mar  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Mar-06 Mar  014/018-019/025-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Mar-06 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           30/30/05
Major-severe storm    10/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    65/65/30
