:Product: 0304RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 63 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
04/1545Z from Region 4012 (S13E33). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Mar, 06 Mar,
07 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 558 km/s at 04/0525Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 04/0449Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
04/2037Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1125 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (06 Mar) and quiet levels on day three (07
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Mar 160
Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar 165/170/170
90 Day Mean        04 Mar 189

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Mar  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  019/025-008/010-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar-07 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/15
Minor Storm           30/05/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/20
Major-severe storm    65/30/20
