:Product: 0305RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/1150Z from Region 4016 (S26E35). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 05/0100Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
04/2142Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 651 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Mar), quiet levels on
day two (07 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Mar 157
Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar 160/155/155
90 Day Mean        05 Mar 189

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  007/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  009/010-005/005-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/30
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    30/15/35
