:Product: 0308RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
08/1825Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar,
11 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 08/1756Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 08/1606Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 08/1535Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 491 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Mar), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (10 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (11 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Mar 148
Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar 150/155/160
90 Day Mean        08 Mar 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Mar  011/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  015/020-019/025-015/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar-11 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor Storm           25/30/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/65/40
