:Product: 0309RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 68 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/1854Z from Region 4019 (N07E43). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Mar, 11 Mar,
12 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1349 km/s at 09/0255Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 09/0346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 08/2100Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 422 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (12 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Mar 148
Predicted   10 Mar-12 Mar 155/160/165
90 Day Mean        09 Mar 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Mar  015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Mar  025/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar  019/025-015/020-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Mar-12 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           30/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    65/40/35
