:Product: 0310RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar,
13 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 686 km/s at 10/0630Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 10/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/2121Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2397 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and three (11 Mar, 13
Mar) and quiet to active levels on day two (12 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Mar 149
Predicted   11 Mar-13 Mar 160/165/165
90 Day Mean        10 Mar 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar  024/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar  015/020-009/012-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/35/45
