:Product: 0311RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar,
14 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 10/2144Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/2033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/1236Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4109 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Mar) and unsettled to
active levels on days two and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M    35/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Mar 161
Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar 165/165/170
90 Day Mean        11 Mar 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar  009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  007/010-012/015-015/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/30
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/45/40
