:Product: 0312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar,
15 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 639 km/s at 11/2108Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 12/0845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 12/0915Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2606 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (13 Mar), unsettled
to active levels on day two (14 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (15 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Mar 160
Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar 165/165/170
90 Day Mean        12 Mar 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar  017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  019/026-015/018-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/30/25
Minor Storm           25/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    65/40/30
