:Product: 0313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar,
16 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 13/1858Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 13/1640Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 13/1821Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1561 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (14 Mar), unsettled to
active levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 175
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 165/170/170
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  018/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  024/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  021/030-018/024-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/30/25
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/40/30
