:Product: 0315RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar, 18 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 670 km/s at 15/1907Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 14/2157Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
14/2154Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4950 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (16 Mar, 17
Mar, 18 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Mar 178
Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar 180/178/175
90 Day Mean        15 Mar 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  022/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  013/015-011/012-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar-18 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/40
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/50/55
