:Product: 0316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar, 19 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 688 km/s at 16/0127Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 16/1618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/1908Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5055 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Mar, 18 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Mar 186
Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar 180/180/185
90 Day Mean        16 Mar 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar  012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  011/012-012/015-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/25
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/55/30
