:Product: 0317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 76 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19 Mar, 20 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 16/2103Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 17/1133Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
17/1204Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6680 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (18 Mar, 19
Mar, 20 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Mar 204
Predicted   18 Mar-20 Mar 188/186/186
90 Day Mean        17 Mar 189

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Mar  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Mar  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Mar-20 Mar  012/015-010/012-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Mar-20 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           15/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/40/40
