:Product: 0318RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 18/1810Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 18/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
18/1223Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3091 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (19 Mar, 20 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (21 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Mar 184
Predicted   19 Mar-21 Mar 185/185/190
90 Day Mean        18 Mar 189

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  010/012-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/30
