:Product: 0319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 78 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar,
22 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 520 km/s at 19/1731Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 19/0335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 19/0319Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 596 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (20 Mar), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day
three (22 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Mar 180
Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar 180/175/165
90 Day Mean        19 Mar 189

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar  019/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  015/020-009/008-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/35
Minor Storm           20/10/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/35/50
