:Product: 0321RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar,
24 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 21/2055Z. Total IMF
reached 39 nT at 21/1755Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-20 nT at 21/1614Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 960 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (22 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (23 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (24 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Mar 165
Predicted   22 Mar-24 Mar 165/160/155
90 Day Mean        21 Mar 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Mar  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Mar  018/027
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Mar-24 Mar  019/028-011/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Mar-24 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           40/15/05
Major-severe storm    25/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    79/40/30
