:Product: 0322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 81 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 13 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Mar, 24 Mar,
25 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 574 km/s at 21/2108Z. Total IMF
reached 30 nT at 21/2209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 22/0011Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 156 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to severe storm levels on day one (23 Mar), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (24 Mar) and unsettled to major storm
levels on day three (25 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Mar 178
Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar 175/170/175
90 Day Mean        22 Mar 188

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  016/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar  024/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  039/065-015/020-022/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar-25 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/35/25
Minor Storm           35/30/35
Major-severe storm    50/15/25
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/05
Minor Storm           10/20/15
Major-severe storm    85/70/75
