:Product: 0323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 82 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Mar, 25 Mar,
26 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 22/2113Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 23/2036Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 22/2349Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 363 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Mar), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (25 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (26 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Mar 168
Predicted   24 Mar-26 Mar 170/170/165
90 Day Mean        23 Mar 187

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  020/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar  021/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  015/020-022/030-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/35
Minor Storm           30/35/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           20/15/20
Major-severe storm    70/75/70
