:Product: 0324RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 24 2220 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 83 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Mar, 26 Mar,
27 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 24/0657Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 24/0114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
24/0121Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 351 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (25 Mar), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (26 Mar) and quiet to active levels on
day three (27 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Mar 156
Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar 162/165/160
90 Day Mean        24 Mar 186

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar  017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  022/030-015/020-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/35
Minor Storm           35/30/20
Major-severe storm    25/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           15/20/30
Major-severe storm    75/70/50
