:Product: 0325RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 84 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Mar, 27 Mar,
28 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 24/2218Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 25/1924Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
25/1554Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 235 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (26 Mar), active levels
on day two (27 Mar) and unsettled to active levels on day three (28
Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
Class M    30/25/25
Class X    05/05/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Mar 156
Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar 155/155/160
90 Day Mean        25 Mar 185

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Mar  021/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  021/033-018/025-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar-28 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/10
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    70/50/50
