:Product: 0326RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 85 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Mar, 28 Mar,
29 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 658 km/s at 26/1950Z. Total IMF
reached 24 nT at 26/1213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-22 nT at 26/1213Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active to major storm levels on day one (27 Mar), active levels
on day two (28 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M    30/25/25
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Mar 152
Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar 155/160/160
90 Day Mean        26 Mar 184

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar  024/033
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  028/040-018/025-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/35/20
Minor Storm           25/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    60/50/25
