:Product: 0327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Mar, 29 Mar,
30 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1025 km/s at 27/1654Z. Total IMF
reached 20 nT at 26/2340Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 26/2154Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 416 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at active levels on day one (28 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Mar 153
Predicted   28 Mar-30 Mar 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        27 Mar 182

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  026/048
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Mar  023/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  018/025-013/015-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar-30 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/10
Minor Storm           20/05/01
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    50/25/20
