:Product: 0328RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 87 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (29 Mar, 30 Mar, 31 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 838 km/s at 27/2109Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 28/0727Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/0748Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2818 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Mar, 30 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (31 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Mar 160
Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar 155/155/160
90 Day Mean        28 Mar 181

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  020/030
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Mar  013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  013/020-008/015-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar-31 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    25/20/15
