:Product: 0329RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Mar 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 634 km/s at 29/0117Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/1552Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
28/2100Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2967 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Mar), quiet levels on day
two (31 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Mar 157
Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 160/165/170
90 Day Mean        29 Mar 180

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  012/012-006/005-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/10/15
Minor Storm           15/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    45/10/25
