:Product: 0402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 02/0225Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 02/1201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
02/0913Z.  Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 26 pfu at 01/2125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1875 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Apr) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Apr,
04 Apr, 05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     15/15/15
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 180
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 180/180/176
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  005/ 005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  010/012-013/018-017/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/40/40
Minor Storm           05/25/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/60/60
