:Product: 0404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 04/1956Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 04/0935Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 04/0926Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 473 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
Class M    65/60/55
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Apr 180
Predicted   05 Apr-07 Apr 175/175/170
90 Day Mean        04 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr  025/ 021
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr  028/043
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr  020/005-010/004-008/003

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/20
Minor Storm           25/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           15/30/25
Major-severe storm    60/50/25
