:Product: 0405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 05/1801Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 05/0206Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 05/0150Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2350 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
Class M    60/60/55
Class X    15/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Apr 184
Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr 180/175/165
90 Day Mean        05 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  019/033
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr  032/044
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  017/004-010/004-011/004

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr-08 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/45/45
