:Product: 0406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 734 km/s at 06/0323Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 06/0518Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 06/0013Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 9242 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Apr, 08 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Apr 167
Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr 165/160/150
90 Day Mean        06 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  020/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr  018/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  011/004-013/004-007/003

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           20/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    50/45/25
