:Product: 0408RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Apr, 10 Apr,
11 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 08/1641Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 08/1257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 08/1258Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 10268 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Apr 159
Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr 150/150/140
90 Day Mean        08 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  010/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr  017/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  014/015-011/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr-11 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/45/45
