:Product: 0409RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr,
12 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 613 km/s at 09/0248Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 09/0918Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 09/0625Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4866 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (10 Apr) and unsettled to
active levels on days two and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Apr 167
Predicted   10 Apr-12 Apr 160/155/155
90 Day Mean        09 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr  020/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr  017/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr  011/012-014/018-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/45/50
