:Product: 0410RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr,
13 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 09/2330Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 09/2131Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
09/2127Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3319 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12
Apr, 13 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 153
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 155/155/150
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  020/ 22
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  011/004-016/004-012/004

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/30
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/50/45
