:Product: 0411RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr,
14 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 11/1226Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 11/2050Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
10/2105Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3362 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Apr), unsettled to
active levels on day two (13 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (14 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Apr 170
Predicted   12 Apr-14 Apr 160/160/150
90 Day Mean        11 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr  011/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr  013/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr  015/022-013/016-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr-14 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor Storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    60/50/40
