:Product: 0412RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 12/2055Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 12/0911Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 12/1853Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3095 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (13 Apr), quiet to active
levels on day two (14 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (15 Apr).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (13 Apr, 14 Apr, 15 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Apr 165
Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr 160/150/150
90 Day Mean        12 Apr 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  013/004-013/004-007/003

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/15
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/40/25
