:Product: 0422RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Apr, 24 Apr,
25 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 711 km/s at 22/0606Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 22/0115Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/0119Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 623 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (23 Apr) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Apr 163
Predicted   23 Apr-25 Apr 160/160/165
90 Day Mean        22 Apr 173

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr  024/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  016/020-014/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr-25 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/30
Minor Storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    75/45/45
