:Product: 0426RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Apr, 28 Apr,
29 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 603 km/s at 26/0717Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
26/2026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
26/1451Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1008 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Apr), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (28 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (29 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Apr 156
Predicted   27 Apr-29 Apr 155/150/145
90 Day Mean        26 Apr 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  005/ 005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Apr  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  013/015-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr-29 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/45/45
