:Product: 0429RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 1148 km/s at 29/0549Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
29/0421Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
29/1917Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 698 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Apr, 01 May) and quiet to
active levels on day three (02 May).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Apr 149
Predicted   30 Apr-02 May 155/160/165
90 Day Mean        29 Apr 171

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  006/005-005/005-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/50
